Bitcoin climb toward $115K looks impressive on the charts, but dig deeper and cracks start to appear. Long-term holders (LTHs)—the “diamond hands” who usually provide a solid base for rallies—are quietly exiting. The Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) metric, which tracks when older coins move, just hit an 18-month high. Translation? The veterans are selling into strength while latecomers scoop up bags.
Historically, this pattern screams distribution. It’s less about routine profit-taking and more about seasoned investors signaling, “Hey, this run might be out of steam.” Without LTH support, Bitcoin’s shiny rally starts to feel a little less stable.
When activity isn’t really activity
At first glance, Bitcoin’s transaction numbers look strong. Daily activity is soaring, and you’d think adoption is booming. The problem? Most of it is smoke and mirrors. Active addresses have dropped to their lowest point in 11 months, yet transactions are at year-to-date highs. How? Enter speculative protocols like Runes, where bots and a handful of traders flood the network with micro-transactions.
It’s like mistaking spam emails for real letters—plenty of volume, but not much substance. This kind of “activity” may inflate the data, but it doesn’t show real growth in user demand or network value.
Key levels the market is watching
For now, $117K stands as a tough ceiling. According to Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal, only a clear breakout above $118.6K would confirm fresh momentum and open the door for another leg higher. Until then, upside looks capped.
On the flip side, slipping below $113.7K could get messy. That level acts as an early warning sign, with $110K—and possibly even the $104K to $100K range—coming into play if selling pressure snowballs.
Rally or reset?
Bitcoin’s bull run isn’t over until the charts say so, but the warning lights are blinking. LTHs are stepping aside, active addresses are slumping, and low-quality transactions are doing the heavy lifting. It’s not the most convincing backdrop for sustained growth.
Still, as always in crypto, the story isn’t written yet. Break $118.6K with conviction, and bulls could keep the party going. Fail to hold above $113.7K, and this rally could quickly turn into a reset. Either way, the next few weeks will tell whether Bitcoin’s $115K stand is a launching pad—or a last hurrah before gravity kicks in.
