Bitcoin Slips in October, but Can November Bring a Rebound?
Bitcoin failed to deliver its usual October strength this year, slipping from $118,000 to around $110,000 by month-end. Retail participation declined, network activity cooled, and broader macroeconomic pressures weighed on sentiment. With November historically among Bitcoin’s strongest months, the question now is whether favorable conditions could spark a recovery.
Bitcoin October Weakness and Market Pressures
October’s performance marked a break from Bitcoin’s long-standing “Uptober” trend. RSI readings fell below neutral, and the asset traded under key moving averages, signaling a loss of momentum. Profit-taking mid-month was accompanied by higher volume, confirming that many investors locked in gains after earlier rallies.
Macro factors amplified the downturn. Hopes for a December rate cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve faded, limiting speculative inflows. Meanwhile, U.S. equities outperformed crypto, China maintained its restrictions on digital assets, and uncertainty surrounding “DAT companies” in Washington added to the caution.
Why November Could Offer Relief
Despite October’s disappointment, historical trends remain favorable. Data from CoinGlass shows that since 2013, Bitcoin’s median return in November has been 8.81%, with strong double-digit gains recorded in 2020, 2021, and 2023.
Several potential catalysts could support renewed upside: easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, a 60% probability of a December rate cut according to CME FedWatch, and the scheduled end of quantitative tightening on December 1. In addition, optimism around upcoming ETF approvals continues to build.
Retail Activity Still Subdued
On-chain data reflects ongoing caution among smaller investors. Open Interest rose nearly 10% in the past week, from $7.95 billion to $8.65 billion, but cumulative volume delta (CVD) fell — suggesting more short positions than longs are being opened.
Active addresses dropped from 1.18 million in November 2024 to 872,000 by October 30, a 26% decline. Transaction fees also fell from $8.44 to $0.56, pointing to weaker demand and slower block utilization.
While fading retail activity can delay recovery, it often sets the stage for longer, more sustainable cycles once confidence returns.
Outlook: What Could Be Next for Bitcoin
If liquidity improves and macro conditions align, Bitcoin could regain momentum in November. Sustained moves above $115,000 would confirm trend recovery, while continued weakness may keep BTC consolidating near current levels.
