In 2023, Solana achieved significant growth, which is confirmed by many key indicators. In particular, the 3-month developer retention rate in the Solana ecosystem has increased from 31% to over 50%, indicating a higher interest among programmers in participating in the development of the project. Solana network activity also shows positive dynamics: on January 31, 2024, more than 884,000 active addresses were registered. This growth was driven by factors such as the release of Jito (a decentralized exchange token on the Solana blockchain) in December 2023 and increased activity on other DEXs – all of which are dynamic developments in the ecosystem.
The SOL coin soared 1000% in a year from $10 to $102. Thanks to this growth, SOL became the most successful leading altcoin of 2023, which brought significant profits to its holders (especially those who bought the coin on the decline).
Solana and NFTs
Solana also strengthened its position in the NFT segment: it took a share of 7.4% of the total NFT market. In December 2023, the number of NFT sales transactions reached a record 15 million. This level of activity has not been observed since June 2022, and this was a significant achievement for Solana, as it allowed the project to surpass even Ethereum in the number of NFT sales during this period. Solana’s NFT trading volume has grown markedly, with sales exceeding $366.5 million in December 2023, surpassing Ethereum and second only to Bitcoin. This is the highest figure for Solana since May 2022.
Finally, another measure of Solana’s success is the increased interest in its meme tokens. In particular, Bonk deserved particular popularity, displacing Pepe and a number of other meme projects and reaching 3rd place in terms of capitalization ($636.5 million) after Dogecoin and Shiba Inu.
Solana (SOL) Forecasts for 2024
Most analytical services expect SOL to trade around $200 by the end of 2024. But there are also more optimistic assessments. Thus, some experts believe that the coin can reach a price level of $400 in the next 12 months.
The VR Soldier experts believe that Solana will end 2024 in significant positive territory, but in percentage terms it will be below 10 times last year’s growth. In addition, Solana is unlikely to be able to improve its current 5th position in the cryptocurrency ranking by capitalization.
So, let’s highlight the main factors that will contribute to the growth of the SOL price.
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Bitcoin halving and the overall growth of the crypto market
After the halving, as well as the reduction in interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, we can expect an influx of capital into the industry, which will have a positive impact on almost all leading altcoins.
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Demand for highly scalable blockchains
The new bull cycle will attract many newcomers, which will create additional stress on popular networks. Therefore, those that can successfully handle a large number of requests will be the winners. At the same time, Solana processes about 65,000 transactions per second, which is an order of magnitude greater than its main competitors.
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Ecosystem development of Solana
The steady growth in the number of developers and the emergence of new projects on its blockchain will strengthen Solana’s position as one of the traditional industry leaders. Such trends should have a positive impact on the price of its coin.
However, we must also acknowledge several drawbacks that could hinder the realization of the most optimistic expectations of SOL holders:
1. Competitive pressure
This year, a number of leading projects are preparing to take revenge. In particular, Ethereum has upgraded Dencun and aims to achieve maximum scalability and low fees. Cardano is also investing heavily in developing technological innovations, and Binance’s BNB coin could rise if the crypto exchange finally resolves all regulatory issues.
2. Probability of failures
The Solana blockchain has long suffered from fairly frequent failures, which sometimes stopped adding blocks for up to several hours. The situation has improved recently, but it is still unclear how the network will cope with the challenges of a new bull cycle. If problems resume, competitors may take advantage of this.
In general, the dynamics of the SOL rate in 2024 will likely correspond to the general trends of the crypto market. In the last quarter of the year, we can expect an assault on the all-time high ($259).
3. Investor expectations
The record growth of 2023 was due, among other things, to panic among traders after the collapse of the FTX crypto exchange and underestimation of Solana’s potential. Now the situation is the opposite: investors are too optimistic, and the growth of the project has already been significantly taken into account by the market.
At The End
Solana has seriously strengthened its position in the industry over the past year and entered the TOP 5 coins by capitalization. Its ecosystem is actively developing, and more and more developers are choosing its blockchain. However, Solana’s potential has already been largely captured by the market, and competitors are preparing to innovate in response. While we don’t expect a repeat of 10x growth in 2024, SOL has a good chance of hitting its all-time high in the final quarter.
