Back in October, Bloomberg analysts Eric Balchunas and James Seyffart jointly predicted a 90% likelihood of approval for the ARK Invest and 21Shares Bitcoin spot ETF bid. Their foresight pointed to January 10 as the critical date for the SEC’s response, serving as the final deadline for the application.
In a recent post on January 7, Balchunas updated the probability of approval to an impressive 95%, emphasizing a mere 5% chance of the SEC rejecting the ARK/21 ETF bid in the imminent days.
In October, @EricBalchunas and fellow Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart predicted that there is a 90% chance that ARK Invest and 21 shares would receive approval for their joint #Bitcoin spot ETF bid on January 10, which marked the final deadline date for the SEC’s response on… pic.twitter.com/lMsPAadjAC
— Gul Gee, The Crypto Guru (@GulGeeOfficial) January 7, 2024
The decision on the Bitcoin spot ETF looms large, with widespread market expectations leaning towards a favorable outcome. In tandem with this positive sentiment, Bitcoin rebounded to the $47,000 mark. Following today’s developments, the flat option Implied Volatility (IV) surged by nearly 20%. The current flat option IV expiring on the 12th soared to around 110%, surpassing 120% for the flat option IV concluding on the 11th.
Greekslive: The result of the Bitcoin spot ETF is about to be finalized, and the market generally believes that it will pass. BTC is currently back at $45,000. The current flat option IV expiring on the 12th has been as high as 110%, and the flat option IV expiring on the 11th is… pic.twitter.com/aRwqC9mljB
— Wu Blockchain (@WuBlockchain) January 8, 2024
Potential Approvals This Week
Fox Business reporter Eleanor Terrett reported that the formal ETF submission deadline has passed. With the exception of Hashdex, all Bitcoin spot ETF issuers, including Ark/21Shares, Blackrock, BitWise, VanEck, WisdomTree, Invesco, Fidelity, Valkyrie, and Franklin, have submitted updated documents. These issuers could be poised for potential approval this week.
We’re now past the official @SECGov submission deadline of 8AM and all issuers aside from @hashdex have submitted their updated S-1’s (S-3 in Grayscale’s case).
So unless there’s a last minute filing from them today, these are the issuers that have handed in all their homework…
— Eleanor Terrett (@EleanorTerrett) January 8, 2024
As the crypto community eagerly awaits the SEC’s decision on the ARK Invest and 21Shares Bitcoin spot ETF, the dynamics of Bitcoin’s market and options imply a sense of optimism and readiness for potential positive developments in the coming days.
Disclosure: This is not trading or investment advice. Always do your research before buying any cryptocurrency or investing in any service.
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