Polkadot retests long-term accumulation structure
Polkadot traded near the two-dollar level on Friday after a sharp intraday drop that pulled the token back into a price zone chart analysts have monitored for more than two years. The range was first highlighted in mid-2022 by analyst EGRAG CRYPTO, who refers to it as Polkadot’s “home” zone due to repeated returns to the region during broader market downturns.
DOT’s latest move into this range followed an early rally that briefly pushed the token above short-term resistance before sellers re-entered the market. Trading activity was elevated during the initial rise but shifted decisively as the decline unfolded, according to market data.
Analyst view: structural floor, but no confirmed bottom
EGRAG CRYPTO describes the zone as a structural accumulation band using principles drawn from Wyckoff analysis, deep-liquidity wicks, and the historical behavior of Polkadot during earlier cycle lows. The analyst noted accumulating DOT at several price points but cautioned that the presence of structural support does not guarantee that a final market bottom has formed.
Polkadot will halve its annual issuance on March 14, 2026. From 120M DOT to 55M DOT. Issuance will further decrease by ~26% every 2 years, reaching a fixed cap of 2.1B DOT by 2160
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An earlier price wick in October is being interpreted in multiple ways: either as an isolated liquidity event or as part of a cyclical retest consistent with typical four-year market rhythms. The analyst argues that both interpretations remain plausible, leaving open the possibility of further downside inside the accumulation zone.
Broader context and institutional signals
Polkadot’s inclusion in a Bitwise crypto index is viewed by some traders as a supportive long-term factor, aligning DOT with assets widely tracked by institutional allocators. Supporters of the long-term accumulation thesis point to Polkadot’s role in multi-chain interoperability, continued development activity, and ongoing updates to the network’s core architecture.
Even so, market participants remain cautious. Reaction at the current price band will determine whether buyers continue to view the zone as a viable long-term entry or whether weakening sentiment pushes DOT deeper into the structure.
What traders are watching
Analysts are focused on several key questions:
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whether the current pattern aligns with a Wyckoff accumulation model
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whether the October wick represented a capitulation event
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whether buyers can defend the lower boundary of the “home” range
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what upside targets may emerge if a cycle bottom is eventually confirmed
For now, the price remains inside a zone that has historically acted as long-term support, but confirmation of a reversal will depend on a shift in momentum and stronger evidence of sustained demand.
