On 13 August, Bitcoin [BTC] soared to a record-shattering $124,457 before easing back to around $120,895. While some traders might see this as a sign of weakness, the deeper metrics tell a very different story.
One of the most telling clues comes from Bitcoin’s exchange netflow, a measure of coins moving in and out of exchanges. Since early August, this metric has been hovering near historic lows, levels previously seen just before the explosive final legs of the 2017 and 2021 bull runs.
In simple terms, fewer coins are hitting exchanges, meaning long-term holders are holding tight. That reduced supply could turn into a powerful tailwind for prices if demand continues to rise.
The NVT Golden Cross – A Signal Worth Watching
Another standout indicator is the NVT Golden Cross, currently at 0.2709 after tumbling nearly 54%. Historically, such steep drops have lined up with market bottoms that were followed by strong rallies.
What does this mean? The Bitcoin network’s transaction activity appears undervalued relative to its market cap, a setup that’s often been a springboard for major price moves. If this pattern repeats, the current dip may prove to be just a pit stop before the next leg higher.
Bitcoin Funding Rates: The Bullish Undercurrent
Right now, the BTC OI-weighted funding rate sits at 0.0137%. That’s not just a random number, it’s a sign traders are still willing to pay to keep their long positions open. Sustained positive funding like this often acts as a backbone for uptrends, providing steady price support.
However, it’s worth noting that overly high funding rates can sometimes hint at overcrowded trades that risk sharp corrections. Fortunately, current levels are comfortably bullish without flashing warning signs.
Bitcoin Derivatives Market Heats Up
The derivatives arena is buzzing with activity. In the last 24 hours alone, Bitcoin saw $24.28 million in short liquidations compared to $17.16 million in longs, a clear win for the bulls as bearish bets got squeezed out.
Trading volume in derivatives jumped an impressive +50.13%% to $176.82 billion. Open Interest climbed 4.14% to $83.76 billion, Options Volume exploded 127.92% to $9.43 billion, and Options OI added 5.19% to $57.15 billion.
This surge in participation from both retail and institutional players boosts liquidity and raises the potential for heightened volatility, often a precursor to big moves.
Why the Bitcoin Bulls Might Have the Last Word
When you line up all the pieces, historic netflow patterns, a deeply compressed NVT Golden Cross, steady funding rates, and swelling derivatives activity, the picture points toward one thing: Bitcoin’s rally might just be pausing before another breakout.
If these trends hold, BTC could be gearing up for another push into uncharted territory, keeping its parabolic trajectory alive.
