Shiba Inu [SHIB] hasn’t exactly been the life of the party in 2025. After peaking at $0.0000334 eight months ago, the memecoin slid into a long downtrend, shedding value and testing the patience of its loyal army. At the time of writing, SHIB was hanging around $0.0000125, a modest 1.61% daily uptick, but still far below its highs.
The decline hasn’t gone unnoticed. Weekly charts showed an 8% drop, while monthly losses ballooned to 16%. Yet, not everyone is ready to write SHIB’s obituary. Joao Wedson, founder of Alphractal, believes a rally is on the horizon, one that could push the coin as high as $0.000028, a 125% leap from current levels.
On-Chain Signals Say “Accumulation Mode”
Wedson points to on-chain data suggesting that SHIB may be quietly staging a comeback. One metric in particular, Realized Cap Impulse, flipped positive. Historically, that shift has often meant one thing: new capital entering the arena.
And it’s not just theory. Coinalyze data revealed SHIB buyers are stepping in, logging $1.2 trillion in buy volume versus $1.1 trillion in sell volume across August 20–21. That’s not a massive margin, but it hints that demand might finally be waking up.
Wedson’s Alpha Price model adds to the optimism, projecting a path to $0.000028 if demand snowballs. Still, there’s a catch: many SHIB holders are underwater, sitting on unrealized losses. Until those wallets find relief, investor hesitation could keep the memecoin stuck in limbo.
Futures Market Lights Up
The buzz isn’t limited to spot trading. Futures traders are also back in the mix. Coinalyze reports SHIB’s Funding Rate turned positive after three straight days in the red. Translation? Traders are willing to pay premiums to hold long positions, classic bullish behavior.
Adding to that, SHIB’s Long/Short ratio climbed to 1.169, with longs taking 53% of the pie. That imbalance shows many traders are betting on a rebound, a dynamic that could turbocharge price action if momentum builds.
SHIB Bears Still Have Their Claws In
Of course, it wouldn’t be SHIB without drama. Technical indicators suggest the bears aren’t done yet. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) slid to 44, inching closer to bearish territory. Meanwhile, the Directional Movement Index (DMI) plunged from 26 to 16, another red flag pointing to strong downside momentum.
If buyers fail to show up, SHIB could retest $0.0000112 before any chance of recovery. A short-term bounce toward $0.000015 resistance is possible, but Wedson’s 125% rally seems more like a long-term lottery ticket than an imminent payoff.
Final Take: Patience Required for SHIB holders
Shiba Inu is in an awkward middle ground, caught between accumulating whales and a market still leaning bearish. If retail enthusiasm returns and on-chain demand picks up, Wedson’s moonshot target isn’t out of the question. But for now, SHIB’s big rally looks like it needs more time to cook.
