Introduction
People are talking about TikTok and its future in the United States. Big platforms, like Polymarket and Kalshi, think there’s a high chance the app could be banned soon. Let’s break it down so everyone can understand what’s happening.
What Are Polymarket and Kalshi Saying about TikTok?
Polymarket is a platform where people make predictions about real-world events. Polymarket predicts a 79% chance that TikTok will face a ban in the U.S. by May 2025. Kalshi, another prediction platform, puts the odds even higher at 89%.
These predictions are based on real money bets, with people buying contracts. Bettors will earn payouts if the U.S. bans TikTok for most Americans from using or downloading it before April 30. Both platforms have seen a lot of interest. Polymarket has $5.6 million in trading, and Kalshi has $2.23 million. Since January, these predictions have grown stronger, showing that more people believe a ban might happen.
What’s the Law?
There’s a new law about TikTok starting this Sunday. President Biden, who is finishing his term, said he won’t enforce it. This leaves the decision up to the next president, Donald Trump. Trump will take office on Monday and has 90 days to decide if the ban will move forward. Trump recently shared his thoughts on Truth Social, saying,
“My decision on TikTok will be made in the not-too-distant future, but I must have time to review the situation.”
Can TikTok Be Saved?
Some well-known people want to save TikTok. YouTuber MrBeast said he’s interested in buying the app to prevent its ban. He also mentioned that billionaires have reached out to him about this idea, but no one knows if it will happen.
Okay fine, I’ll buy Tik Tok so it doesn’t get banned
— MrBeast (@MrBeast) January 14, 2025
Other famous figures, such as “Shark Tank” star Kevin O’Leary and former Los Angeles Dodgers owner Frank McCourt, also suggested they might want to buy TikTok’s U.S. operations.
Why Is This Happening?
Many people worry about TikTok because a Chinese company, ByteDance, owns it. Some think this could lead to security risks. Trump even talked with China’s Chairman Xi Jinping about TikTok. The U.S. Supreme Court recently supported a law that could either force TikTok to sell its U.S. operations or face a ban.
What’s Next?
The prediction markets indicate that many people believe TikTok might face a ban. However, Trump’s administration will make the final decision. In the coming weeks, we’ll learn whether TikTok will stay or go.
