Analysts have estimated that an attack on the Bitcoin (BTC) network would require 7 million mining rigs. The situation is no better with Ethereum (ETH). Cryptocurrency analytics platform CoinMetrics published a study in which it refuted fears about the hacking of the networks of the two largest cryptocurrencies.
What is a 51% Attack?
The 51% attack is a real raider takeover. During the hack, attackers are trying to gain control of 51% of the blockchain’s power in order to manage it themselves. For example, take 100% of the reward for mining a block and commissions for the duration of the attack, or lead to double spending of internal payment channels. For Ethereum, this threshold is 34%.
A project subjected to such an attack immediately loses its reputation in the crypto community. Usually its capitalization and the value of the token drop sharply. This forces investors to literally run away from the project in order to save their funds. Crypto exchanges, in turn, most often delist the affected coin.
Probability of Hacking the BTC Network
To estimate the potential costs of such an attack, CoinMetrics specialists used the Total Cost of Attack (TCA, or total cost of attack) metric.
Experts have come to the conclusion that there are currently no profitable ways to take over such a percentage of network control. As they noted, even entire states will not have enough funds. Therefore, there is no financial incentive for a 51% attack on the blockchains of the two largest cryptocurrencies.
“Even in the most lucrative double-spending scenario, where an attacker could potentially earn $1 billion, he would need to spend $40 billion,” the study says.
To hack the Bitcoin network, hackers will need about 7 million mining installations. This will cost crypto criminals approximately $20 billion. However, even if they have this money, there are not that many ASICs on the market yet.
The ETH Network is also Not that Easy to Hack!
According to CoinMetrics analysts, the risk of an attack on the Ethereum blockchain is also exaggerated. In the study, they analyzed the possibility of network hacking through the liquid staking platform Lido.
According to the analysis, in this case, attackers would have to spend more than $34 billion. In addition, due to the limit on asset withdrawal, the attack would take approximately six months.
The plausibility of such a hack is also reduced by the logistical complexity. A potential hacker would have to manage more than 200 nodes and spend about $1 million on Amazon Web Services (AWS).
In December 2023, there was active talk in the crypto community that the BTC network was on the verge of a 51% attack. The main reason was the high concentration of Bitcoin hashrate in two large mining pools.
